Crown Prince Mohammed Ibn Salman al Saud seems to have established a close working relationship with President Vladimir Putin. Putin praised Muhammad, the last time was in Russia in may 2017, for its collaborative nature.
While football teams of Russia and Saudi Arabia are unlikely to determine the outcome of the world Cup, relations between Putin and Muhammad may have long-term impact on both countries. The leaders had a lot of issues for discussion, among them the November 2016 agreement on the reduction of oil production, as world energy market has witnessed the surge in oil prices amid instability in Venezuela and the United States that had renounced nuclear deal Iran.
During his visit to Moscow, Mohammed was accompanied by oil Minister Khalid al-falih. The Minister and his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak took part in the negotiations between Putin and crown Prince in the Kremlin. During the meeting, each party appreciated the consistency of their contacts, focusing on the Vienna agreement or arrangement between OPEC and some other oil producers to reduce output of oil.
As he writes in his article on Al Monitor the expert of the Russian Council for international Affairs, Yury Barmin, Moscow and Riyadh should coordinate their positions before a crucial meeting of the OPEC which will take place in Vienna, June 22.
In Vienna starts the meeting of the parties to the agreement OPEC+ to limit oil production. Most of them believe that the production time to increase. A decision on this issue can be taken June 23.
Complicating the upcoming meeting that Russia and Saudi Arabia will be to act as a United front, is the lack of consensus among 24 countries that have signed the agreement in 2016.
In particular, Russia can be difficult to balance their interests and the interests of Tehran, whose production will probably fall by 900 thousand barrels next year because the States again imposed sanctions. In such circumstances, the government of Iran would like to export as much oil as possible at the highest price, which Russia and Saudi Arabia, seem determined to undermine, increasing world production. The last two countries agreed on the need to increase production, however, the mechanics and the extent of their understanding will probably remain unknown until the meeting in Vienna.
Coordination on energy issues, apparently, acts as a glue, uniting Russia and Saudi Arabia in the region, where at the moment, their other positions are extremely polarized. Traditional disagreements about the settlement of the Syrian civil war has worsened divergent views on the role of Iran in the region, as well as a campaign by Saudi Arabia to isolate Qatar for allegedly harboring terrorists, which Qatar denies.
Russia has deliberately remained neutral in respect of the blockade, despite numerous attempts by both sides to bring her to this issue. Beginning in the summer of 2017, as Saudi Arabia and Qatar went on the offensive charm of Moscow. Saudi Arabia in October organized the first visit of king of Saudi Arabia to Russia. However, Moscow remained adamant in his position.
When the blockade of Qatar is clearly losing its momentum, after a year of futile attempts to make Doha a “cave” under pressure, Riyadh did in Moscow what to be regarded as an unfriendly act. Fearing that Russia can deliver your defense system s-400 in Qatar, king Salman bin Abdul-Aziz al Saud sent a letter to the President of France, the Emmanuel Macron. In this letter, Salman has threatened military action against Qatar if Doha will be the Russian arms and asked Him to convince Qatar to back down from the deal.
Although Russia and Qatar are in the early stages of talks on deliveries of s-400 and it is unclear whether they will be able to continue their attempts to Riyadh to intervene in Moscow’s relations with other regional States, can upset Putin. These actions are of concern to Moscow, as more and more resemble a page from the play with the United States, which is working to breakdown the Russian contract s-400 to Turkey. But most importantly, the politics of Salman and Mohammed are similar to policy, the time, Prince Bandar bin Sultan al Saud, as head of Saudi intelligence. Last will go down in history as the officials of Saudi Arabia, which has tried to force Putin to change his foreign policy in Syria in 2013
The Russian-Saudi relationship was apparently beneficial. These two countries exhibit the problems that they are easy to negotiate, but do not mention problems that are harmful to their partnership. Iran, of course, was the elephant in the room, and about Tehran had no official references to the Russian-Saudi meetings in recent months. However, it is difficult to imagine that the head of Riyadh would not discuss what he called the main threat to stability in the middle East.
The question of the empowerment of Iran in the middle East may not have been the main on the agenda when Putin and Mohamed was found last week, but Moscow has the key to containment of Tehran in the region and knows Riyadh. But not the fact that the Russian authorities see the role of Iran in the middle East as a threat to regional security. Senior Russian officials seek to create a regional security organization, which will include two opponents of the Bay.
The confrontation between Iran and its regional rivals can’t be a game with a zero score, as shown by the recent events in Syria. Israel put enormous pressure on the Iranian forces supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, forcing Russia to reach agreement with tel Aviv, in the presence of Tehran in Syria. This has led to rumors that Moscow would help Iran from southern Syria.
The violent actions of Israel against Iran may have given the Saudi crown Prince the feeling that Russia finally began to succumb to the consideration of the containment of Iran. It may be an appropriate time to try to drive a wedge between the two allies of Assad. The Prime Minister of Lebanon Saad Hariri, who recently was twice criticized Iran and close with Muhammad, met with Putin in Moscow, the day before the visit of the Saudi crown Prince, which helped to convey to the Kremlin the message about the alleged Iranian threat.
Instability in the energy markets, apparently, is a stabilizing factor in the relations between Moscow and Riyadh, as they were in the same boat, striving for a pragmatic solution to the oil crisis. However, at the moment both sides are under the illusion that random coordination and common interests in the oil industry can replace adult relationship.
At the same time, political differences continue to accumulate, but them pushed into the background. The extreme fragmentation of the Russian-Saudi relations in the extent to which controversial issues are simply ignored, risked creating more instability in the long term, once the price stay at the OPEC deal-plus exceeds the price of its output.
