“The uncertainty and instability that accompanied this process, spread through the planet, and the West reacts to everything is either fear or nostalgia for the old forms of nationalism that have not benefited in the past and, of course, will not bring it now,” he writes in his article on Project Syndicate.
For even the most steadfast optimists the summit “the Big seven” held in Quebec city in early June, was a proof that the geopolitical West is falling apart and loses its global value, but the main destroyer of the world order, created and led by America, is none other than the President of the United States. Of course, Donald trump is more of a symptom than a cause of the disintegration of the West. But it sharply accelerated this process.
The origins of the current problems of the West date back to the end of the Cold war, where bipolar world order has come economic globalization has made possible the emergence of new powers such as China. In subsequent decades, America clearly has to consider their time-tested alliances more of a burden than an asset.
This applies not only to Europe, Japan and South Korea, but also the immediate neighbors of the United States, Canada and Mexico. Trump’s decision to impose duties on imports of steel and aluminium has led to deep disagreements between the United States and Canada at the summit in Quebec, and their split over the trade, of course, will have much broader political consequences.
Europe and North Atlantic dominated the global economy for four centuries. But now it is not so. The new geography of global power that emerged as a result of the transfer of the center of gravity of the world economy from the Transatlantic region to the Asia-Pacific, does not coincide with the conceptual map of geopolitics the XX century, not to mention the XIX-th.
The US remains the leading superpower in the world, but originated in China, as both new and ancient geopolitical power. Possessing a population of 1.4 billion people and a huge domestic market, China has challenged the US ‘ world leadership in Economics, politics and technology.
Anyone someone has ever been in the corridors of power in Beijing, knows Chinese leadership has its own map of the world. This map of China (“Middle Kingdom”) is located in the center while Europe and the United States pushed to the edges, left and right respectively. In other words, the US and Europe (this is a strange set of small and medium nation States) are already separated and sent to the sidelines.
First, the United States reacted to the geopolitical changes of the present century, the intuitive, the “pivot to Asia”. However, America has long been present both in the Atlantic and the Pacific; and, as the last remaining world power, it has the ability to anticipate the historic changes in geopolitics thus to protect their own interests.
Europe, on the other hand, somnambulism walked through the current period of interregnum. Europeans for the most part, I decided to dive in introspection, old grudges and sweet dreams of the nineteenth century, when they still ruled the world. This narrow view of the world was reinforced by such events as election trump and a referendum on Breccia in the UK.
However, instead of thinking about the eccentric behaviour of trump, we should remember that the current global trends arose before his presidency. The fact that the policy of “pivot to Asia” declared former US President Barack Obama. Trump just continues, for example, met recently with North Korean leader Kim Jong-UN in Singapore.
Politics trump poses a serious threat, not because it represents a strategic reorientation of the United States, which in any case has already occurred, but rather because it is inconsistent and overly destructive. For example, when trump calls to reduce the US military presence in the middle East, he just says Obama.
But breaking nuclear agreement with Iran, trump increased the likelihood of war in the region. But struggling trying to alleviate the international isolation of North Korea, received in exchange of almost nothing, he strengthened the position of China in the far East.
Equally self-destructive global trade war unleashed by trump. Hitting duties for the closest allies of America, it actually pushes them into the arms of China. If in the US, European and Japanese exporters are hampered by protective barriers, which they have a choice but to develop the Chinese market? In Europe, deprived of Alliance support, there is no other choice but to turn to Eurasia, despite the militarism of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, manifested in the East of Ukraine, and his attempts to influence the outcome of elections in Western countries.
In addition, even if the US began to pursue a protectionist policy, Japan would have sooner or later come to terms with the growing economic power of China. Last chance to curb Chinese heavyweight evaporated when trump came out of the TRANS-Pacific partnership, which could play the role of a managed America’s Pacific frontier against China.
In the end, the “pivot to Asia” will be held in different ways on the two shores of the Atlantic. The lack of a joint U.S.-European policy aimed at maintaining transatlantic solidarity, will lead to the fact that the West will quickly sink into Oblivion. Because the United States will look to the West across the Pacific, and Europe – on the East side of Eurasia, the only winner will be China. Thus, the real strategic threat of the era of trump is not just that the world order changes. But the fact that politics trump promises are guaranteed to “Make China great again”.
