U.S.-China “trade war” of trouble by its proponents, is under attack in the end with the risk of leading US corporations. Meanwhile, the surprise came from the ECB keeping interest rates unchanged at least until the end of summer 2019.
U.S. stock futures sink on premarket. On Thursday, key indices closed in mixed format, tech Nasdaq Composite has added 0,85%. The immediate resistance for the S&P 500 runs in the area 2800-2810 points.
In fact, it has already been worked out. In case of a rollback the immediate support for the index will be located on level 2740-2730 points.
Risks
“Trade war”. Today the White house will also announce the tariffs on imports of $50 billion of products from China. According to Reuters, is preparing a second round of tariffs – already
$100 billion products. If you deploy a full-scale “trade war” States can be losers. It is obvious that China will retaliate by introducing duties on imports of certain goods from the United States.
Inflation in the United States may increase as U.S. producers of tariffed products will have the opportunity to increase prices. As a result, the fed will be forced to become more active in terms of monetary tightening. In addition, China may refuse to purchase Treasuries in your portfolio that will lead to a rise in yields of US government bonds, and therefore market interest rates. Meanwhile, in the long term China will be able to fix the yuan as the means of international payments, surpassing America from the world stage. Under attack from the actions of trump may be leading US corporations. On “foreign” markets represent about 30% of revenue of companies in the S&P 500 index the fed Meeting. The regulator is expected to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75-2%.
From the statement was completely crossed out the phrase that “the Committee will closely monitor actual and anticipated changes in inflation compared to its
goal.” Thus, the fed acknowledged that inflation in the US reached the targeted level.
According to forecasts, the FOMC is now expected four increase in the key rate in 2018 (up to 2,25-2,5%), while in March it was expected three, but the preponderance of the votes
minimal.
Positive factors
The ECB meeting. On Thursday the regulator announced that it intends to keep interest rates unchanged until at least the end of summer 2019 Statement was a surprise
for market participants, which had to revise expectations in softer terms of monetary policy direction.
The regulator will reduce the monthly volume of redemption of bonds under quantitative easing (QE) since October to 15 billion euros (30 billion euros) and the program will conclude in December 2018 Reduce the QE after September – and so it is the expected time. While the regulator has maintained quite careful rhetoric, leaving space for maneuver.
Expectations
Next week will be the OPEC meeting. In the United States will be published data on the real estate market for may.
The chart of the S&P 500 index at the end of the Thursday time frame daily
