A year ago, four countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), led by Saudi Arabia, and then the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, established a complete air and sea blockade for Qatar.
The blockade was introduced mainly to reduce the political autonomy and economic independence of Qatar, as countries accused Doha of supporting terrorism. Apparently, a year later the crisis does not subside.
On Sunday, June 3, in a letter to French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi King Salman threatened military action if Qatar buys S-400 missiles from Russia.
Despite the fact that Riyadh plays a dominant role in the Gulf region, Qatar will prevail if it acquires these missiles. Saudi Arabia also fears the use of these missiles by an outcast of Qatar, said Alexei Kondratyev, deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Cybersecurity Defense.
Has the embargo undermined Qatar’s economy?
On May 16, the Qatar National Bank reported that the current account surplus rose to 6.4% of GDP in the fourth quarter amid rising oil prices.
Following the imposition of the blockade, Qatar, one of the richest countries in the world, was forced to turn to its Sovereign Wealth Fund to keep the economy from collapsing.
The impact of the embargo on the economy was limited to Doha, which this year earned $ 12 billion in bond issues.
For the first time in history, the Russian defense minister visited Qatar. Sergei Shoigu met not only with the head of the military department, but also with the emir of the Middle East state. The parties entered into an agreement on military-technical cooperation.
A good atmosphere is maintained for international investors in Qatar, but financial transactions have moved to Dubai, New York and London, which has led to a decrease in the volume of financial transactions in Qatar.
Qatar is the largest LNG exporter and signs new supply contracts. Trade relations based on LNG exports have helped Qatar maintain its relations with many countries without isolating it after the crisis.
Who is threatening Qatar?
Saudi Arabia is the largest Gulf country with the largest population, strong economy and army, as well as large oil reserves in the region. This explains why most of Saudi Arabia’s neighbors are constantly worried about the military threat.
Qatar, the size of Connecticut, has never considered itself a threat to the larger Gulf countries. However, the UAE and Saudi Arabia hold the opposite opinion, putting Qatar in a subordinate position.
In 2014, the UAE and Saudi Arabia recalled their ambassadors from Doha for a short period of time to make it clear to Qatar that they no longer intend to put up with his policies.
Saudi Arabia considered Qatar a new global player in the fields of energy, finance, investment and real estate markets, realizing that Doha is becoming a significant foreign policy player, challenging the position of Saudi Arabia as the dominant diplomatic and political player in the Persian Gulf.
Currently, the demands emanating from the two largest Arab countries are aimed not only at Qatar’s foreign policy, but also at its history, legitimacy and sovereign rights.
Large Gulf countries even stopped air travel using Qatar Airways services, blocking land borders with Saudi Arabia and using ports for Qatar ships.
LNG exports have maintained a stable economy, as Qatar is one of the largest LNG exporters in the world, with a total export share of 60%. It is also one of the largest suppliers of LNG to India, having an export of 27.3% more than the same period last year of 24 thousand Qatari rials in April 2018. This is the main source of income, which did not feel a significant impact. It will continue to be a key source of income if there is no confrontation with Iran.
