As Trump himself said, they had previously talked on the phone, but they held a personal meeting for the first time. The way it went was covered by more than five thousand journalists from around the world. In fact, the summit turned into a grand political reality show with Kim and Trump in the lead roles. Kim, unaccustomed to the attention of thousands of completely independent reporters, was visibly nervous in public. But Trump was like a fish in water. Since he worked as a TV presenter for a long time, for him this format was simply ideal.
Journalists even caught the moment when the American president, talking with Kim in private, enthusiastically said that from the outside it all looked like a scene from a fantastic movie! In general, for Trump, the show is the main thing, and he received it in full. The summit was without exaggeration watched by the whole world.
But the content of the signed document personally raises questions for me. It consists of four points, but only the third is of real importance, which refers to the DPRK’s commitment to work towards the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. What is “in the direction” — no one knows for sure.
At the same time, there is a reference to the Panmunjomi Declaration, signed by North and South Korea in the spring. And here is an important point. The declaration said that the nuclear-free status of the Korean Peninsula should be achieved through «full denuclearization.» From the context it follows that we are talking about nuclear disarmament of both Koreas. But South Korea does not have nuclear weapons. Accordingly, we must understand that we are referring to the Americans. But they are definitely not going to give up their nuclear arsenal.
In general, all disputes now go around the interpretation of the concepts of “denuclearization” and “full denuclearization”, which are often mentioned both in the spring declaration with an unpronounceable name and in the Singapore agreement. Americans (and with them almost the rest of the world) believe that denuclearization is North Korea’s refusal of nuclear weapons and their production capabilities. “Complete denuclearization” is, in general, the same thing, only with frowning eyebrows.
But North Korea itself has a slightly different linguistics. Denuclearization for the DPRK is not only its own rejection of nuclear missiles, but also the breaking of the joint defense agreement between the United States and South Korea.
This agreement allows the United States to maintain its military bases in the south of the peninsula, and (importantly) guarantees South Korea an American «nuclear umbrella.» The refusal of Seoul from this “umbrella” in Pyongyang is considered as an important part of denuclearization as its own abandonment of the atomic bomb. For the United States, breaking this agreement is absolutely, categorically unacceptable. Now, at least.
Even more interesting is the North Korean understanding of «total denuclearization.» For them, this means world nuclear disarmament. Their logic is: “complete — means complete.” Of course, waiting for this during our lifetimes does not even make sense. Maybe in the distant future the world will agree on the renunciation of atomic weapons, but certainly not now.
Be that as it may, one must understand: the same documents in Washington and Pyongyang are now read in completely different ways. In a good way, Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un had to first agree on the terminology, and then sign the documents. For now there is an incredibly wide field for interpretation and the spring inter-Korean declaration, and the just-signed joint statement of Trump and Kim. I will not be surprised at all if very soon they will begin to accuse each other of abandoning the principles of the Singapore document.
In the meantime, the world has become the owner of a short declaration of intent, written in a very vague language and open to interpretation from all sides. Someone may say that “the trouble has begun”, that everything will be much better further and peace will reign in the Far East. May be! Who knows?
But this outcome seems really fantastic to me, as Trump correctly pointed out. The United States will never break its defense agreement with South Korea. This treaty has already become one of the main pillars of the American global security system. It gives the United States the only serious bridgehead in East Asia. Right next to the rapidly gaining strength of China.
The cancellation of such an agreement is almost like the dissolution of NATO at the height of the power of the Soviet Union. From Trump, of course, everyone can be expected, but this would be wildness even for him. Accordingly, there will be no denuclearization in the North Korean sense of the word.
And if so, then Kim Jong-un does not make sense to disarm. The examples of Libya and Ukraine perfectly demonstrate what happens to those who voluntarily give up nuclear weapons. It should be remembered that the West gave security guarantees to both of these countries. Where are these guarantees now? It’s indecent to even remember them.
In addition, Trump himself, using the example of the Trans-Pacific Cooperation Treaty, the Iranian nuclear deal, the Paris climate agreement, the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, showed that he was not going to comply with any international agreements. I think he tears them apart more often than he concludes.
In these circumstances, Kim would be a complete idiot, agreeing to unilateral nuclear disarmament. And he is not an idiot at all. Most likely, the North Korean dictator will now begin to quietly improve his nuclear arsenal. His scientists will increase the range of missiles and the power of thermonuclear warheads. Just in case, so to speak.
At the same time, Kim loudly, with a large gathering of journalists, will demolish some sheds where allegedly there was nuclear research. His sappers will dig at night, and during the daytime they will explode tunnels in which (type) one can test an atomic bomb.
Well, the dictator himself will give up military parades and will personally open the “Burger King” or “McDonalds” in Pyongyang. The point is simple: to show that the DPRK has become a much more open and less aggressive country.
I think after this, Trump, who loves burgers, will lift sanctions, help them with money, and become North Korea’s best friend. I am almost sure that North Korea’s nuclear disarmament will never happen — no matter what is written in the relevant documents, this country will remain with its bombs and missiles.
But under the influence of all this diplomatic and political game, another interesting process may begin: the DPRK can follow the Chinese path. 40 years ago, China was the poorest, backward, wild and crazy country with a nuclear bomb, which everyone was afraid and did not understand. But when he opened himself up a little to the world, reforms started right there, business came to life, science was born again, and the people got rich. Now China is the second economy of our planet.
In communist Vietnam, everything was almost the same. In the 1960s, they fought fiercely with the USA, and now they are friends and traders. At the same time, in China and Vietnam all the same people remained in power as they were. If this is the case now, then there is no need to worry about peace on the Korean peninsula. But if someone decides to take away his atomic toys from Pyongyang by force, then everything will be very, very bad. Hope for the first
