The world economy is in turbulence on the background of the aggressive actions of trump and the political crisis in Italy and Spain.
However, in the second half of 2018, the situation may change dramatically. “News.Economy” presents 6 key events that will affect the world economy in the second half of 2018.
At the opening on Friday the summit “the Big seven” planned to discuss clean energy and gender equality. But it is clear that we will talk more about financial discrimination themselves of the G7 countries.
Introduced trump duty on steel and aluminum up hurting members of the G7, the closest allies – the EU and Canada, which is chairing the “seven” and is the hostess of the meeting. All six of the Finance Ministers of the affected countries, the United States on the eve of the summit tried again to reach out to trump.
The EU and Canada threatened retaliatory measures if he does not change course in relation to new duties on steel and aluminum. China, being open to negotiations to resolve the dispute, warned that defaults on trade, if the President realizes the threat of the introduction of tariffs for Asian countries.
The FOMC meeting will be held June 12-13. Considering the hot discussion of a rate hike at a meeting held on may 1-2, it is likely that now the Committee will decide on this step.
As noted in the published minutes of the meeting of the Federal open market Committee (FOMC), the fed held may 1-2, the American Central Bank expects that the rate hike will be soon continued.
“The majority of participants felt that if the incoming data confirm the forecasts of the fed, it is appropriate to take further steps to reduce stimulus. The meeting participants expect that the situation in the economy will continue a gradual rise in interest rates”, – noted in the final communiqué.
July 1, the election of President of Mexico. The leader of the presidential race is a candidate from the left forces of andrés Manuel lópez Obrador, the level of support reached 52%. Rivals of Lopez Obrador are far behind him.
So, Ricardo Anaya of the coalition “Civic front for Mexico” (“national action Party”, “Party of the democratic revolution” and the party “Civic movement”) is gaining 26% of the sympathy vote. May 2 his measure of popularity was 30%.
The representative of the coalition “All for Mexico”, which includes the ruling “Institutional revolutionary party” (PRI), the party “New Alliance” and “Green ecological party of Mexico,” josé Antonio Meade takes third place with 19% of support of respondents (17% may 2).
Another candidate, ex-Governor of the state of Nuevo Leon Jaime Rodriguez Calderon, has the support of only 3% of respondents.
The United Kingdom needs to conclude a final agreement on the terms of the agreement in October, but EU and UK expect significant progress at the Council summit in June, which at the moment seems doubtful.
Previously the Irish party said that Theresa may only have two weeks to put forward their proposals on customs relations with its neighbor – the British region of Northern Ireland.
The border between British Northern Ireland and the rest of Ireland will be the only UK land border with the EU after the withdrawal of Britain from the block. Although both sides say they are committed to preserving the border, the parties have not yet come up with a solution to this problem.
Party balance in Congress could change in November. November 6, the U.S. will be the re-election of the Senate (33 seats) and the re-election of members of the house of representatives (435 seats). In addition, elections will be held 39 state governors. These elections will probably become a referendum on confidence in the policy of the President of the trump. If the Democrats can capture enough seats in the Senate and the house of representatives, the pressure on trump to rise significantly. High possibility that Trump will have to abandon the “trade war” with the EU and China.
On 24 may, the President of the United States Donald trump has canceled a planned June summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-UN, even after North Korea began to fulfill the promise to destroy nuclear test site.
Recalling scheduled for June 12 meeting with Kim in Singapore, trump said in a letter to North Korean leader: “unfortunately, based on the huge anger and open hostility displayed in your last statement, I believe that it would be inappropriate to conduct this meeting”.
Given the impulsivity of trump, we can assume that the probability of meeting with Kim Jong-UN still remains. Too much work has been done for this meeting, so it was abandoned.