05.10.2022

The US labor market: what’s behind the scenes?

Data on the US labor market exceeded the expectations of experts, but there are certain nuances that make the picture not so rosy.

Today, the U.S. came out quite strong statistics on the labour market. The economy has created 223 new jobs. Moreover, according to the survey, just over a month in the United States was created by 904 thousand jobs from full employment, whereas the jobs are part-time and unskilled collapsed on 625 thousand

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By the way, this is a record jobs growth with full employment in this century.

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However, there are negative signs, which almost nobody uses. According to statistics, the jobless rate slid to 3.8% – to the lowest level since 1969, the Same figure was also recorded in 2000

However, it should be noted that this happened against the backdrop of another decline in the number of people included in the calculation of the labour force. In may this figure decreased by 170 thousand persons and has reached 95,915 million people, which is a new historic record.

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Due to the shortage of qualified candidates, employers are forced to hire drug addicts and criminals. That is why you may need a long time that wages began to show significant growth.

Let us add that the average hourly wage in the U.S. last month increased by 0.3 percent compared to April and by 2.7% in annual terms. Both values were 0.1% better than expected.

In General, the market perceives the published data as strong, and it may be a decisive argument for the Federal reserve system in favor of another rate hike. The probability of a rate hike at the next meeting, which will take place on 12-13 June, is now valued by the market at 86%.

The dollar reacted little strengthening. The us dollar index to a basket of six major currencies, gaining 0.3 percent.

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