14.05.2021

If Erdogan is able to control the government?

Personal rule without creating a coalition has always remained the main election mantra “of the party of justice and development of Turkey” (AKP) , which argues that coalitions represent a threat to political stability.

The party has managed to remain at the helm of government since its coming to power in 2002, as of June 24, the polls, the founder of AKP President Recep Tayyip Erdogan re-elected by a margin of 52.6% in voting that offers more powers under the new management system.

However, the AKP failed to win an absolute majority in Parliament with 600 seats, meaning she will have to agree to a kind of “covert coalition” to pass laws. In elections in November 2015, the party won 49.5% of the vote and obtained 317 seats out of 550 seats in Parliament. On 24 June, the AKP won 42.5% of the vote and the 295 seats in Parliament. It was less than 301 seats needed for a majority.
The result presented extremely right “nationalist movement Party” (MHP) as a natural partner of the coalition of the AKP. The IPA, which contested the elections in Alliance with the AKP and supported the re-election of Erdogan, scored 11.1% of the vote and 49 seats.

However, according to Turkish journalist Ayala Ganioglu for publication Al Monitor, during the campaign, both parties have shown that they are not in perfect condition, including such major issues as the state of emergency since a failed coup attempt in July 2016.

MHP leader Devlet Bahceli claimed that the emergency situation should continue, although Erdogan said that it will not last longer July 19, when it will expire the last six months. In addition, Bahceli urged a broad Amnesty for many prisoners only to receive strong denials from government officials.

In Turkey victory in the presidential election won the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With his re-election congratulated Vladimir Putin.

At its first meeting after the election on 27 June, Erdogan and Bahceli agreed to abolish the state of emergency, but according to him, seems to have removed a major benefit. It is reported that both parties will consider amendments to the law on the fight against terrorism, internal security act and the Criminal code, which compensate for the abolition of the emergency.

The deal is a sign of a modus operandi between the two partners for the coming period. Simply put, on issues where the IPA is conducting the red line, the AKP will have to make concessions to achieve what she wants.

Ahead of the meeting with Bahceli, Erdogan has sacked senior party official who challenged Erdogan and the AKP. Thus, he made a significant gesture, showing that he wants a harmonious relationship for the next 5 years.

During the bilateral meeting, Erdogan and Bahceli agreed to establish a permanent national Commission for working to eliminate the differences between the two parties.

However, despite the mutual commitment to the agreement, Erdogan does not want to share power. As AKP leader, he never was in opposition and had no coalition partner and his party have always held a strong position in Parliament.

The only exception was the election in June 2015, in which the AKP has lost its parliamentary majority. However, Erdogan has successfully performed a maneuver to avoid the creation of a coalition government and to ensure that the elections in November of this year, giving the parliamentary majority the AKP.

Now Erdogan possesses extended Executive powers, but his party lacks a majority in Parliament, forcing many to think, repeat the story. Can Erdogan to challenge early elections in the autumn, to strengthen his parliamentary support to put an end to the pressure to act in Alliance with the MHP or any other party?

Atilla Sertel, the legislator of the main opposition Republican people’s party, believes that the AKP and the MHP will inevitably disintegrate.

Yusuf Halacoglu, a well-known member of the opposition party Iyi, believes that Erdogan will look for other ways to get rid of their dependence on the MDP, namely that he tries to force legislators from other parties to side with the AKP to AKP could obtain a parliamentary majority.

There are already indications that the AKP may receive support from political parties except the MDP. Mehmet Aslan, founding member of the “Good of the party”, created last year by defectors from the IPA and received 43 seats in Parliament, said shortly after the elections that the AKP may receive support from the “Good batch”.

The imminent appointment of Erdogan Vice-presidents and Ministers, and the election of the speaker of Parliament will be the first indication of how harmonious will be the partnership of the AKP, the MHP in the next 5 years.

Erdogan now has the opportunity to govern the country in accordance with the presidential decrees, despite the fact that the post of Prime Minister abolished. However, the Parliament can annul the decrees.

As the Alliance of the AKP, the MHP owns an absolute majority of the 344 seats in Parliament, the opposition has little chances to impose laws that violate the decrees of Erdogan. However, theoretically, the possibility of switching parties, the MHP and participation of the opposition persists. In addition, any possible cooperation with the “Good party” can strike at the AKP’s Alliance with the IPA.

Under the new system of early legislative elections can be established either by the President or by Parliament, requiring a three-fifths majority of the votes. However, if the President will call for early presidential elections will be mandatory, along with the parliamentary.

Meanwhile, in March 2019 Turkey plans to hold local elections. Already there are reports that the AKP will seek to conduct surveys until October or November, to the point that many consider inevitable aggravation of economic problems of the country. This, in turn, recalls the possibility that the ruling party can win parliamentary elections, together with the municipality, trying to obtain a majority in the legislature.

Erdogan has become the reigning leader of Turkey, was the joint position of Prime Minister and President, he was able to surpass for a few months 15-year continuous rule of Mustafa Kemal atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey and the first President since the 29th of October, 1923, until his death on 10 November 1938 Erdogan became Prime Minister in March 2003 and held the position until his election to the presidency in 2014

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