04.12.2021

At the beginning of trading, the ruble is expected to strengthen

The main support for the bulls in Russian stocks will be the dynamics of the energy market, where Brent crude was able to rise to the level of $ 56.5 per barrel. At the same time, the situation on external stock exchanges is neutral for our securities.

So, at the end of Thursday in the US, the Dow Jones and S & P500 indices lost about 0.1%. This morning, there has been a recovery in futures for major US indices, which added up to 0.1%. At the auctions in Asia, purchases predominate: Nikkei225, on data on investments of non-residents in Japanese stocks and bonds, is growing by 0.9%, the Chinese Shanghai Composite is pulled up by 0.1%. 

Against this background, we expect the predominance of purchases in Russian stocks at the beginning of the day, as a result of which the MICEX index will come close to the level of 2100 points. However, there may not be enough strength to test it and break it down, even taking into account the support that the opening of Europe will provide to our market, where we expect moderate growth of the major indices at the beginning of the day.

At the same time, growth may continue in the middle of trading, which will be facilitated by the dynamics of the energy market. Thus, against the background of yesterday’s data on hydrocarbon reserves and production by the Ministry of Energy, published yesterday, we do not exclude a further rise in Brent crude and reaching the $ 57 mark, which will allow the Russian bulls to keep the initiative.

In the afternoon, investors’ attention will be focused on a block of important macroeconomic statistics from the US, where data on retail sales and business stocks, as well as consumer price and consumer sentiment indices from the University of Michigan will be published today. They can have a significant impact on investor sentiment and determine the dynamics of our market in the last hours. 

At the beginning of trading on the currency section of the Moscow Exchange, we expect some strengthening of the ruble against major world currencies, which will be facilitated by the recovery in oil prices and the approaching tax period. As a result, at the beginning of trading, the dollar may retreat to the area of ​​57.6 rubles.

In the future, the decline in the American currency may continue, and it will test support at the level of 57.5 rubles. The breakdown of this mark will depend on the dynamics of the energy market. So, if Brent oil can overcome the $ 57 mark, already during today’s session the bears will gain a foothold under the support, which will speak in favor of the continued decline in the dollar / ruble pair and the possibility of it reaching its annual minimums set around 56 rubles …

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