18.05.2022

The MICEX index will open with a growth of 0.2% – senior risk manager of investment company

The nearest significant supports will remain the levels of 2090, 2080 p. The marks of 2110, 2130 p. Will act as resistances.

Probably, after a moderately positive start of trading, we will once again observe attempts to overcome the level of 2100 p. On the MICEX index. In case of a successful breakdown of the indicated mark, further movement of the MICEX index to the area of ​​2110 p. 

In the second half of the day, the pattern of changes in the price of oil futures will remain the usual reference point for participants in Russian trades. The publication of September statistics on changes in the volume of retail sales in the United States (15.30 Moscow time) may also have some influence on the local market.

Last Thursday, the main Russian stock indices MICEX (-0.29%) and RTS (+ 0.06%) finished trading with an insignificant multidirectional deviation in relation to the levels of the previous close. From the very beginning of trading, the MICEX ruble index was firmly entrenched in negative territory. At the same time, its moderately negative dynamics was associated not with the general deterioration of sentiment on the local market, but rather with the point sales in certain securities.

Thus, the mid-term technical picture in the MICEX and RTS indices has not changed at the end of yesterday’s trading. They continued to consolidate near their mid-term highs. We add that the current stability of the Russian stock market is largely due to the fact that oil futures are still trading at relatively high levels. Yesterday’s publication of the official weekly data on oil and petroleum product reserves from the US Department of Energy did not become an obvious negative for the prices of hydrocarbons. A significant increase in overseas gasoline stocks took place along with a comparable reduction in distillate and crude oil storage volumes.  

By the end of the evening trading session, the December futures on the RTS index (RIZ7) came to a state of insignificant backwardation of 1.5 points, or 0.1% in relation to the basic indicator. Derivatives market participants are close to a neutral assessment of the immediate prospects for the RTS index.

Against the background of a moderate decline in the MICEX index, which took place at the end of the trading day, the most liquid shares completed trading mainly with a decrease within 1-2% in relation to the levels of the previous close. Yesterday was extremely poor for significant corporate news. Therefore, noticeable movements in some securities were mostly of a technical nature. 

The leader of intraday gains among blue chips was the shares of the Moscow Exchange (MOEX RM, + 0.53%). Yesterday we saw in them a new attempt to storm the close six-month resistance, located in the region of 120 rubles. It turned out to be unsuccessful not because of the weakness of these securities, but because of the lack of general positive sentiment on the local market. Shares of Moscow Exchange continue to enjoy support due to the recent publication of the issuer’s operating results. They pointed to an increase in trading volumes on the markets of the Moscow Exchange by 7.8% at the end of September 2017 compared to the same period last year. This, in turn, indicates a proportional increase in the commission income of the auction organizer.

NCSP shares NMTP (NMTP RM, + 3.85%) easily renewed their long-term maximum, despite the issuer’s message about the reduction in the total cargo turnover of NCSP Group terminals in January-September 2017 by 2.5% compared to the same period last year. The current drop in NCSP’s cargo turnover was due to a reduction in the transshipment volumes of crude oil, oil products, as well as ferrous metals and pig iron. At the same time, the decrease in the volume of liquid cargo transshipment is due to seasonal factors. A significant part of them were postponed to October due to stormy weather and maintenance work at a number of Russian refineries.

We add that some positive for NCSP Group is the likely receipt of a delay in converting tariffs from foreign currency to rubles. As a general rule, stevedores should switch to ruble tariffs from January 1, 2018. However, it is assumed that stevedoring companies with foreign currency obligations will be able to receive a grace period. According to open data, NCSP has loan obligations in the amount of about $ 1.3 billion due in 2023. 

NLMK NLMK shares (NLMK RM, -2.44%) continued to fall in price after the dividend gap on the Moscow Exchange on Wednesday in the T + 2 trading mode. In case of the continuation of the outlined fall, they will meet the immediate support in the area of ​​130 rubles.

MTS MTSS (MTSS RM, -3.24%) also won back the dividend cut-off that took place yesterday. Semi-annual dividend payments on them will amount to 10.4 rubles, or about 3.56% of the closing price on Wednesday. Thus, yesterday’s fall in MTS shares roughly corresponds to the amount of announced dividends. We add that as a result of yesterday’s drawdown, these securities were dropped far from the strong resistance level, located in the region of 290 rubles. Thus, the medium-term technical picture now appears rather neutral in them.  

The shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel (GMKN RM, -1.17%), Aeroflot AFLT (AFLT RM, -1.39%), Severstal (CHMF RM, -1.54%), Rosseti-JSC MRKH ( RSTI RM, -1.48%), FGC UES FEES (FEES RM, -1.01%).

Before the start of trading in Russia, futures for US stock indices are slightly increasing within 0.1%. Brent crude oil contracts rose 0.5%. Gold futures added 0.2%. Japanese stock index Nikkei225 gained 0.9%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng declined slightly.

Taking into account the morning improvement in mood on the oil market, the state of the external background before the start of trading in Russia can be described as moderately positive.

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