22.10.2021

The ruble may come under pressure if positive statistics are released in the US

Yesterday, the Russian currency very successfully resisted the strengthening of the dollar on international markets. This was probably due to internal factors (preparations for the tax period and the growth in demand for Russian assets).

The latter is evidenced by the continued decline in OFZ yields (on 5-year bonds, they dropped below 7.3%).

Today’s US statistics presents certain challenges for the Russian currency. The traditionally increased demand for rubles on the eve of the tax period starting on Monday will help to counter them.

A potential strengthening of the dollar amid inflation statistics may lead to the USDRUB pair moving towards the 58 mark in the afternoon today. Except for this factor, the next two weeks, as we wrote yesterday, may be quite positive for the ruble against the backdrop of the tax period and expectations for a decrease in the key rate.

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