28.03.2024

Economists talked about the future after a pandemic

The crisis in the global economy due to the coronavirus pandemic will be a serious challenge for the international community and will bring “unprecedented shocks,” economists told Foreign Policy magazine.

First of all, the pandemic will question the benefits and costs of globalization, aggravate doubts about global supply chains and make them more local, experts say. People will have a fear of traveling abroad, as well as worries about essential goods and the ability to recover domestically, said Carmen Reinhart, professor of international finance at Harvard University.

«The main danger is that this organic and selfish departure of people and firms from globalization will be aggravated by politicians who take advantage of the fear of open borders. They can impose protectionist restrictions on trade and restrict the movement of people on the pretext of protecting health,» says the chief International Monetary Fund economist Gita Gopinat.

At the same time, she noted that the world community is capable of preventing such an outcome and «preserving the spirit of international unity.»

Joseph Stiglitz, a professor of economics at Columbia University and Nobel Prize in Economics, added that after the pandemic is over, states will need to create a more forward-looking and viable global financial system.

“Countries will have to find a stronger balance between the benefits of globalization and the necessary self-reliance,” he explained.

According to Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for World Economy, the pandemic will exacerbate long-term stagnation and the gap between rich countries and the rest of the world.

The area of ​​finance and trade will rely excessively on the US dollar, which will «increase dissatisfaction.» In addition, in the future, «economic nationalism» will lead to the fact that states will increasingly fence off their economies from the outside world.

In turn, Adam Tuz, professor of history and director of the European Institute at Columbia University, emphasized that the unprecedented and catastrophic consequences of the recession that has begun «are incalculable.»

“Something new has come up in this world. And terrible,” he said.

According to Ace’s forecasts, after the pandemic, «many stores will no longer open and jobs will be lost forever.»

As Laura d’Andrea Tyson, professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, noted that a pandemic will entail massive economic change. Thus, the processes of digitalization and automation at work will accelerate, many jobs of average skill will disappear, the composition of GDP will change, and the growth of precarious and precarious employment will accelerate.

When the economy begins to rise, demand will increase for police, firefighters, doctors, logistics and other vital services workers.

«In these areas new vacancies will appear, salaries will grow and various benefits will expand,» she added.

At the same time, professor of economics at Yale University, Nobel laureate in economics Robert Schiller believes that the pandemic will give the world the opportunity to create new ways and means «to overcome suffering», such as inequality.

«Perhaps emergency payments to people who have gone to many countries, this is the path to unconditional basic income,» Foreign Policy quoted him as saying.

Moreover, a pandemic could be an incentive for the creation of new international institutions that will allow better sharing of risks between states, he said.

According to a researcher at the Institute of Asia at the National University of Singapore Kishore Mahbubani, the crisis will accelerate the turn of globalization towards China.

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