16.01.2021

Real spending of Russians turned out to be higher than inflation

No matter how the Russians saved, they had to pay for the usual goods more than a month earlier. At the beginning of the year, essential goods responded to the increase in VAT by increasing prices. In the future, the price increase will be noticeable in the categories of durable goods and goods.

Personal inflation index – deflator – for the second month in a row shows higher values ​​than  official inflation  from Rosstat. So, by the end of February, this figure was 0.5%, with an inflation rate of 0.4%. Experts explain this situation by reacting to price increases. As noted in the  study of  the Romir holding, the Russians had to pay almost one and a half percent more for a set of familiar goods than a month earlier.

The deflator reflects real changes in the general level of prices for goods and services for a certain period. The basis for the calculation is the data of households on actually made purchases at real prices. The resulting figure actually shows the average personal inflation of each consumer.

– Dynamics repeated the trend that has already become traditional in recent years. After the jump in personal inflation in January due to increased prices for familiar goods in the second month of the year, Russians are adapting to new realities and are returning to savings. However, this year the February decline in the deflator turned out to be relative – the index decreased only in comparison with the figure of the previous month, but still exceeded the value of official inflation. This suggests that, as it were, the Russians did not save, they had to pay more for the usual goods more than a month earlier, – explained Andrei Milekhin, president of the Romir research holding.

Our compatriots spent on a familiar set of products by 1.4% more than a month earlier. At the same time, housing and communal services increased in price by an almost imperceptible 0.1%, while gasoline in a month even lost in price a barely noticeable 0.2%.

According to experts, in the coming months, the dynamics of the deflator is unlikely to change to negative, and the index itself will receive lower values ​​than inflation. In the first months of the year, essential goods responded to the increase in VAT with rising prices. In the future, the price increase will be noticeable in the categories of durable goods and goods.

Earlier it was reported that the  expenses of Russians increased for the 8th of March  – many people spent a considerable part of their salaries for holidays or used microloans. At the same time in February, the Russians  increased their daily spending, contrary to the tradition that has developed over the past few years, and the average bill for a trip to the store  increased by 13 rubles .

Central Bank reported a slowdown in inflation in Russia

At the end of February, the figure was 5.6%

The last time the trend inflation slowed down in July 2018: then the figure fell to 4.85%. Earlier, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade reported that the impact of VAT increases on inflation in Russia has been exhausted.

The annual rate of trend inflation in Russia in February 2019 slowed to 5.6%. This was announced by the Bank of Russia.

“The increase in consumer price growth against the background of stabilization of estimates of trend inflation indicates the predominance of temporal factors in accelerating annual inflation,” the regulator said.

The last time the trend inflation slowed down in July 2018: then the figure fell to 4.85%. Trend inflation largely reflects the rate of core inflation. This indicator is taken into account by the Central Bank when making decisions about the key rate.

Earlier, the Ministry of Economic Development reported that the effect of the increase in VAT on inflation in Russia has been  exhausted , since already last month the price growth rate returned to the level of last year.

Recall that in January 2019, Russians  spent 100.7% of their income on goods and services .

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