Apart from all the scaries we see in the cinema of the fratricidal Russian-Ukrainian war— a name that will decrease in background— and also the worries that torture us at home every min, I want to obtain a general sense of the situation.
Any culture resembles a pyramid in just how close people are to the leadership as well as how they can affect it. In democracies the pyramid is flat, with a sharp angle of the base as well as an obtuse angle of the top, while in personified autocracies (absolute monarchies, tyrannies) there is an extremely sharp angle at the top as well as the base angles are only a little listed below 90 levels. Our culture is a typical example of this type of elevated tyrannical pyramid.
Concerning 80% of the population is its base. These are usually individuals who live decently or are simply bad. They get their sight of the globe from tv rather than the Internet; they either have actually never taken a trip abroad or are happy on the personal beaches of Egypt, Turkey, Tunisia, as well as Hainan. They are normally anti-American, even though they have never ever been to America. This anti-Americanism is birthed of envy because they know extremely little. Typically their image of the globe is involved conspiracy theory theories, pseudo-history, and also various other weird concepts. They are passive, and although they are currently dissatisfied with their lives, they are generally obedient to authority.
In today scenario, generally these individuals— about 70%— support Putin’s battle in the Ukraine. They believe in the bloodthirsty anti-Russian «Bandera-ites» as well as the bad West that Russia opposes. They aren’t fanatic about it.
They would choose not to send their kids to battle, and also they would certainly such as to stay clear of the challenges of war. There are really couple of individuals who are passionate. The ones who offer to fight do it out of destitution as well as despair since their lives are unfulfilled.
The 2nd level of the pyramid is 18-19% of the populace. These are well-educated as well as cultured people who widely use the Internet, travel and know the world well. Much of them have income sources independent of the government. Others, on the contrary, operate in state corporations and also the administration, serving the leaders but not component of them. These people are commonly, but not always, affluent. They might even have a cottage in Latvia or Bulgaria, or even a house on what they call «Lazurka»— the Cote d’Azure. These individuals have a clear understanding of the globe, as well as much of them have solid moral principles and value liberty.
Others, however, sell their skill to the authorities and also, for their silence, receive good-looking incomes in services, universities, and administrations associated with the management. Amongst this group, regarding 70% the current battle, which they mention publicly somehow. Numerous individuals in this group are shocked by the most recent events and are altering their loyalty to the authorities to moral opposition to them, surrendering from public workplace, state information media, and so on. Not all followers do this. Actress Chulpan Khamatova is an example of the opposing bulk in this team, while conductor Valery Gergiev is an example of the dedicated minority.
These people are completely committed to the authorities. They are likewise well-educated and understand whatever, they don’t have houses however estates in the West in addition to big down payments in foreign financial institutions(from Switzerland to the UAE)and also work in international business. These are authorities of the highest ranking, heads of state firms, the so-called replacements of the Duma and also the Federation Council, governors, as well as multiple-star generals of the military, the FSB, the GRU.
They marketed their flexibility to Putin, and in exchange they received care free as well as abundant lives. They are genuine administrators of his will— not for ideological reasons, however, for purely self-seeking factors. Among them are ideologues like Dugin and also Vaino, but there aren’t many of them. And most notably, they have different ideas, and also they try to execute them via their «accessibility to the male.»Currently horror as well as aggravation rules in this «elite» group. The main words you listen to in the offices of the Kremlin, Lubyanka and the Presidential Administration on Old Square are»they deceived us.
«With the Russian-Ukrainian battle, Putin has put an end to their dolce vita, making their money and suites in the most effective locations of the world inaccessible as well as demanding even more commitment from them. On the other hand, their complicity makes most of them war criminals that will certainly stand trial in the Hague. That wasn’t their deal with Putin. On top of all of it, they face the specter of aGreater Terror if the current regime, declined by the universe, proceeds its aggressiveness— or the prospect of being reduced to nuclear ash. This is not the future envisioned by these proprietors of yachts, collections of Rolls-Royces as well as Lambarghinis, masterpieces of painting as well as comfy vacation homes among the vineyards of Tuscany. These individuals stopped being faithful to Putin at one point. Why would certainly they want to shed whatever they’ve gained, and also their very lives? Without them, Putin is no more a fantastic tyrant, however simply an old male hiding in a bunker. He can even press that well known red button, so intelligently portrayed in» Charlie Hebdo,»and now no person will certainly carry out his order.
A few fans do not count. They will just be separated, similar to the tyrant who made the error.»With the Russian-Ukrainian war, Putin has actually put an end to the elite’s dolce vita, making their cash and suites in the best places of the world hard to reach as well as demanding a lot more commitment from them. Their engineering makes many of them battle wrongdoers who will stand trial in the Hague. That had not been their deal with Putin.»
Putin can not interest the next stratum— it is either versus him or devoted to him for the same reason as the elite as well as will certainly abandon him along with the elite. Putin can not attract individuals— he is anything yet an individuals’s leader. The people, even if they sympathize with him, will certainly not follow him. They are passive as well as agree their television sets, not a revolution. If Putin had won the battle in Ukraine in 2 days and the West had actually not imposed crushing sanctions, he would have retained the loyalty and also mystical devotion of the elite, like Hitler in 1939-41, and the complete support of the people.
The intelligentsia would certainly have been split as well as separated. Putin lost the war, stopped working to execute his blitzkrieg, and also obtained slowed down in the March mud of the Ukrainian Black Earth. The permissions were without a doubt destructive, just as old President Biden promised. Putin stands alone. This is not Iran, where the Ayatollah routine was developed as a result of a preferred religious change (like the Bolshevik program in Russia in 1917-22). And also it’s not North Korea, where a prominent anti-colonial battle became despotism.
Russia has had thirty years of boring, idea-less kleptocracy. Putin terminated the kleptocracy. He can no longer be its leader, he has ridiculed himself before the whole globe, which considers him a harmful battle criminal with indications of mental disorder. They will hand him over in the near future. It will certainly depend on the brand-new leader to bring back the «attractive life»of the pyramid, restore connections with the West, obtain accounts in international financial institutions unblocked, as well as have their assets launched.
The very best individual to do this is a person not tainted by the present crimes, actually ideally a person that has actually noisally knocked them, yet that comes from their milieu, an individual that can negotiate with them. We are not endangered by a new Stalinism, or the Iranian path, or the North Korean path. The masses of Russia are quiet and there will be no revolution. There will certainly be— as well as really, very soon— a stroke of genius at the very top, like Khrushchev’s ouster in 1964, or the death of Emperor Paul on September 11, 1801, or the strange death of Stalin in March 1953.
Yet it will certainly be performed in order to recover connections with the West, with the approval and moral support of the middle, energetic stratum of the population. And it will be finished with the repair of democracy and constitutionals rights. And also we can expect this in the coming days, and much of it in the coming weeks. I continue to be an optimist. Translated from Facebook. The views expressed in opinion items do not necessarily reflect the setting of The Moscow Times.