23.06.2024

US will not be able to influence Iranian authorities

A number of American experts said that the policy of applying sanctions by the Trump administration against Iran in order to achieve a «regime change» is «naive and unrealistic.»

This was stated in the comments to CNBC by representatives of several research centers. Jarrett Blank, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment Foundation, said in an interview that attempts by a number of aggressive members of the Trump administration to achieve any change in Iran’s political system would not be successful.

The expert noted that the application of sanctions against Iran by the United States this time will not have the same effect as before because of the refusal of many countries to take part in the sanctions pressure on Iran.

“The macroeconomic effect of the sanctions will be less pronounced than the restrictions that the previous US administration had adopted before the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan for Iran’s Nuclear Program, simply because this time the US allies and major trading partners did not support US sanctions against Iran.

The question is whether today Iran is more vulnerable politically than in the period 2012–2014, when the previous sanctions were adopted.

In my opinion, it would be a mistake to believe that the Trump administration has a certain unified strategy of action with respect to Iran.

There is definitely a group of hawks in the administration who would like to increase pressure on Iran and achieve a certain change of power. In my opinion, these are naive and unrealistic expectations given the current situation. A new attempt to put pressure on Iran, as well as put pressure on the US allies and their companies, will ultimately allow other countries to establish closer relations with Iran. In particular, China is likely to only strengthen its cooperation with Iran. «

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