The world economy was in turbulence amid the aggressive actions of Trump and the political crisis in Italy and Spain.
However, in the second half of 2018, the situation can dramatically change. Vesti.Ekonomika presents 6 key events that will affect the global economy in the second half of 2018.
At the G7 summit opening Friday, they planned to discuss clean energy and gender equality. But it is already clear that the conversation will go more and more about financial discrimination of the G7 countries themselves.
The duties imposed by Trump on steel and aluminum painfully hit members of the G7 club, the closest allies – the EU and Canada, which presides over the “seven” and acts as the hostess of the meeting. All six finance ministers of countries affected by the United States on the eve of the summit tried again to reach Trump.
The EU and Canada are threatening retaliation if it does not change course regarding new duties on steel and aluminum. China, being open to negotiations to resolve the dispute, warned that it would abandon trade obligations if the president realizes the threat of tariffs for an Asian country.
The FOMC meeting will be held June 12–13. Given the heated discussion of rate hikes at a meeting held May 1-2, it is highly likely that committee members will now take this step.
As noted in the published minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed, held May 1-2, the US Central Bank expects that the rate hike will soon continue.
“Most participants felt that if the incoming data confirms the Fed’s forecasts, it will be appropriate to take further steps to reduce incentives. The meeting participants expect that the development of the situation in the economy will allow to continue a gradual increase in the base interest rate, ”the final communiqué noted.
July 1 will be the presidential election in Mexico. The leader of the presidential race is leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, his support level has reached 52%. Lopez Obrador’s competitors are far behind him.
So, Ricardo Anaya from the coalition “Civil Front for Mexico” (“Party of National Action”, “Party of Democratic Revolution” and the party “Civil Movement”) is gaining so far 26% of voters. On May 2, his popularity rate was 30%.
José Antonio Mead, the representative of the All for Mexico coalition, which includes the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (IRP), the New Alliance and the Green Ecological Party of Mexico, is in third place with 19% of respondent support (17% on May 2 )
Another candidate, ex-governor of the state of Nuevo Leon, Jaime Rodriguez Calderon, enjoys the support of only 3% of respondents.
The United Kingdom is due to conclude a final agreement on the timing of the withdrawal agreement in October, but the EU and the UK expect significant progress at the council summit in June, which currently seems dubious.
Earlier, the Irish side said that Theresa May has only two weeks to put forward her proposals on the customs relations of this country with its neighbor – the British region of Northern Ireland.
The border between British Northern Ireland and the rest of Ireland will become the only British land border with the EU after Britain leaves the block. Although both sides declare that they are committed to maintaining the border, the parties have not yet come to a solution to this problem.
Party balance in the US Congress may change in November. On November 6, the United States will hold re-election of senators (33 seats) and re-election of members of the House of Representatives (435 seats). In addition, 39 state governors will be re-elected. This election is likely to become a kind of referendum on confidence in President Trump’s policies. If Democrats manage to seize the majority of seats in the Senate and House of Representatives, pressure on Trump will increase significantly. It is highly likely that Trump will have to abandon the “trade war” with the EU and China.
On May 24, US President Donald Trump canceled a summit scheduled for June with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, even after North Korea began to deliver on its promise to destroy a nuclear testing ground.
Referring to a meeting with Kim scheduled for June 12 in Singapore, Trump said in a letter to the North Korean leader: “Unfortunately, based on the enormous anger and open hostility shown in your last statement, I believe that this scheduled meeting will be inappropriate.”
Given the impulsiveness of Trump, it can be assumed that the probability of meeting with Kim Jong-un is still preserved. Too much work has been done for this meeting, so that it could just be abandoned.