Erdogan won the election. What’s next?

The head of the Turkish Central Election Commission, Sadi Gyuven, announced the victory of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the presidential election. He scored an absolute majority of votes. Lyra reacts with reinforcement.

According to the latest CEC data, Tayyip Erdogan gains 52.5% of the vote, his closest competitor from the main opposition “People’s Republican Party” Muharrem Inje receives 30.7% of the vote.

As for the other candidates, Selahattin Demirtash from the Kurdish “Party of Democracy of Peoples” is gaining 8.4%, Meral Akshener from the opposition “Good Party” – 7.3%, Temel Karamollaoglu representing the “Party of Well-being” – 0.9%, Dogu Perincek from the Rodina party – 0.2%, writes TASS.

In turn, the People’s Alliance, formed by the ruling Justice and Development Party and the Nationalist Movement Party, received 99.9% of the ballots as a result of the majority of parliamentary seats in the republic’s parliament, gaining 53.6% of the vote. The opposition “People’s Republican Party” secured the support of 22.7% of the voters, the “Party of Democracy of Peoples” – 11.6%, and the “Good Party” – 10%. The remaining political associations did not overcome the 10% threshold.

It should be noted that Erdogan will now have the highest authority to govern the country, that is, he will be able to make those decisions that he considers necessary, with virtually no balances.

The market reacted immediately: the Turkish lira strengthened against the dollar by more than 1%, then fell slightly, but eventually continued to strengthen.

Erdogan’s victory at least eliminates the uncertainty that negatively affected Turkish markets this year and is likely to have a positive effect on the lira.

However, if the Turkish president reiterates his desire to control interest rates, speculators will immediately begin to sell the lira. This will continue until the market feels that monetary policy is completely under the control of the Turkish Central Bank.


By the way, since April, the regulator has sharply raised the rate to prevent attacks on the national currency, but in the near future any reduction will be perceived negatively by the market.

So far, Erdogan does not comment on the future of monetary policy and the authority of the Central Bank of Turkey. Most likely, it will take time for the president to indicate his position on this issue.

It is also worth noting that the positive reaction of the Turkish lira may be short-term, since its collapse this year is the result of not only political expectations, but also the result of sales on the markets of almost all developing countries.

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