24.10.2021

Hryvnia revalues from the beginning of the year

The NBU explained the reason for the hryvnia revaluation with such sophisticated words: “The strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate, which has been observed since January, indicates that favorable factors dominate the market, under the influence of which … the supply of foreign currency on the part of customers on the interbank market increased while the demand for it decreased,” the statement says message on the page of the National Bank

It is clear that the NBU will never tell you humanly why “devaluation or revaluation”. This is the NBU. They like smart words so that it is not clear.

And why is the hryvnia revaluation ??

– A large influx of currency from migrant workers. Only for 1 square. 2018 to Ukraine transferred about $ 3.5 billion through banks

– the economy after Maidan really shrank significantly and the demand for imported gas and oil sharply decreased, as a result, the demand for imports does not grow

– A large number of “evoblyakh” constrains the purchase of new imported cars. And this means less need for currency to importers

– IT service exports are really growing and currency inflows are also

– metal exports rise and metal prices rise

– when there is no devaluation of the hryvnia, the population begins to change more cash currency to the hryvnia. For 1 square. 2018, the population changed cash currency by $ 600 million more than bought

– the population began to carry currency to the bank for deposits. Again, there is no devaluation and you need to do something with the currency. A deposit at least brings income

These are the factors that affect the revaluation of the hryvnia.

Where is the risk. At the beginning of the 3rd quarter, this July it will be necessary to pay interest on a Eurobond. And in September it will be necessary to pay off external debts and pay interest again. Then the demand for currency will grow …

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