07.12.2021

Rising oil prices and OFZ yields will contribute to a moderate strengthening of the ruble

The trade balance of the PRC in September amounted to $ 28.47 billion (39.5 billion was expected, but the decline was due to the growth of imports and therefore it is moderately positive for the Asian region as a whole and the Russian Federation).

The consumer price index in Germany in September remained 1.8% (1.8% y / y was expected). At 15.30 (Moscow time) in the United States will be released data on retail sales for September (sales expected to grow by 1.7%) and the core consumer price index (expected to grow by 1.8% y / y). The University of Michigan consumer confidence index for October will be announced at 17.00 (Moscow time) – forecast 95 points.

Today the meeting of the finance ministers and the heads of the Central Banks of the G20 countries will continue, statements regarding the monetary policy of the relevant regulators are possible. After the recent publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting, the markets were convinced that there will be no sharp hike in rates. However, the rhetoric may change to reflect new factors.

Futures quotes for the main grades of oil are added within 0.7%: a barrel of Brent costs $ 56.56, and WTI – $ 50.94. Oil reserves according to the EIA for the week decreased by 2.7 million barrels. (expected to decrease by 1.9 million, and yesterday API estimated the growth of reserves at 3.1 million). During the week, OPEC and EIA presented their rather positive mid-term market forecasts. Baker Hughes will publish a report on the number of rigs at 20.00 (Moscow time).

In the metals market, gold adds 0.12%, continuing to win back partly “pigeon” protocols of the Fed. Platinum is depreciated by 0.13%. Nickel is up 0.57%.

In the foreign exchange market, the euro / dollar pair is growing by 0.12% to the level of 1.185. As a result of yesterday’s evening trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar fell 0.24% to RUB 57.69, while the euro lost more than 0.5% to RUB 68.22. Futures on the MICEX lost less than 0.15% in the evening.

Trading will open today, most likely, with moderate growth of the MICEX due to the positive external background and expectations related to the season of corporate reporting. On the foreign exchange market, rising oil prices and attractive yields on ruble bonds will contribute to a moderate strengthening of the ruble.

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